Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 31.111245 34.810055 39.095797 44.512707 51.304852 59.727913 7.129060e+01
2025-04-13 27.085809 32.057787 38.431856 47.548793 60.932672 81.234304 1.180152e+02
2025-04-20 23.398563 28.668229 35.874633 47.100842 65.688150 99.306598 1.813775e+02
2025-04-27 21.089080 26.543101 34.396468 47.547381 71.865030 124.695487 3.165595e+02
2025-05-04 19.412339 24.963518 33.300740 48.154471 78.572586 158.730371 6.852299e+02
2025-05-11 18.016621 23.559730 32.167629 48.309056 84.483197 200.363278 2.417437e+03
2025-05-18 16.699640 22.095396 30.675870 47.381970 87.536028 240.362617 3.308484e+06
2025-05-25 15.776838 21.127134 29.847543 47.520363 93.472153 311.899942 NaN
2025-06-01 14.910513 20.154192 28.867475 47.104348 97.784011 397.916660 NaN
2025-06-08 14.109579 19.211409 27.819243 46.309740 100.651819 500.025133 NaN
2025-06-15 13.429836 18.409251 26.930175 45.688622 103.930580 653.563005 NaN
2025-06-22 12.855258 17.735821 26.202592 45.297382 108.010295 916.949561 NaN
2025-06-29 12.202628 16.895613 25.099071 43.853291 107.491238 1130.134678 NaN
2025-07-06 12.064348 16.913817 25.620928 46.526359 126.848967 5631.730957 NaN
2025-07-13 11.602957 16.343369 24.941560 45.982287 131.084880 36899.011746 NaN
2025-07-20 11.271067 15.976387 24.629192 46.365976 141.026125 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.981718 15.664716 24.396571 46.929624 153.229836 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 10.677978 15.308432 24.039064 47.070314 163.486367 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 10.312556 14.821830 23.371651 46.179351 165.737086 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.054163 14.515166 23.058122 46.310793 176.776995 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.772893 14.152634 22.598027 45.911752 183.385878 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.483066 13.761380 22.049630 45.149989 186.190545 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.223069 13.413966 21.573724 44.554365 190.423720 NaN NaN